The truth about how Spain is changing

Coronavirus in Spain: Day 26, 21,570 cases

Mar 20, 2020, 9:43 am
Thread: At the close last night, there were more than 18,000 confirmed cases across the country and RTVE had counted 833 dead.

1. Let's go. The 26th day of this chronicle of Coronavirus in Spain. The curve on the graph offers no hope for the moment. At the close last night, there were more than 18,000 confirmed cases across the country and RTVE had counted 833 dead. How many will they announce today?
Published: Mar 20, 2020, 9:43 am | On Twitter

2. Let's add a bit more data to the daily graph as well, so you can see the evolution of it all. Here is the linear version with the latest data for total cases in Spain, plus intensive care, the deceased and the cured.
Published: Mar 20, 2020, 10:06 am | On Twitter

3. If we hit the logarithmic scale button, we see that the progression of cases in intensive care in Spain, deaths and cured follows the total cases curve.
Published: Mar 20, 2020, 10:10 am | On Twitter

4. As days go by in Spain, the crude fatality rate is slowly increasing. 2.25% on March 9 vs. 4.24% yesterday. Here you can see the rate in the blue highlighted column. The dead figure is the latest number published by the Health Ministry each day. Total cases is my daily count.
Published: Mar 20, 2020, 10:20 am | On Twitter

5. The Canary Islands have started to publish more detailed information about Coronavirus there. Here the cases per hospital on each island yesterday morning:
Published: Mar 20, 2020, 11:32 am | On Twitter

6. In the Canary Islands, there are cases of Coronavirus in all adult age groups, at similar percentages. The over 60s only account for 30 per cent of the cases.
Published: Mar 20, 2020, 11:36 am | On Twitter

7. In general in the Canary Islands, critical Coronavirus cases are occurring among older people, but some critical cases are among people around 40 years old as well, both men and women.
Published: Mar 20, 2020, 11:39 am | On Twitter

8. 47% of critical Coronavirus patients in the Canary Islands, and 52% of non-critical patients hospitalised on a normal ward, have no underlying medical conditions.
Published: Mar 20, 2020, 11:42 am | On Twitter

9. 10% of active Coronavirus cases in the Canary Islands are in intensive care, 36% in hospital.
Published: Mar 20, 2020, 11:44 am | On Twitter

10. And, of course, the number of Coronavirus cases in hospital increases in line with the increase in the total number of cases. Here is the whole Canary Islands document (pdf): https://bit.ly/3aii6GF
Published: Mar 20, 2020, 11:48 am | On Twitter

11. BREAK: Spain reaches 20,000 cases of Coronavirus and more than a thousand deaths. Fernando Simón announces 19,980 cases in Spain, 1,141 in intensive care and 1,002 dead.
Published: Mar 20, 2020, 11:53 am | On Twitter

12. The Deputy Director of Operations for the National Police says he is concerned about the increase in arrests during the Coronavirus state of alarm in Spain: "In the face of non-compliance, zero tolerance", he warns.
Published: Mar 20, 2020, 11:58 am | On Twitter

13. The Coronavirus graph for Spain with 20,000 cases:
Published: Mar 20, 2020, 12:04 pm | On Twitter

14. And the logarithmic version, with 20,000 cases and 1,000 deaths in Spain.
Published: Mar 20, 2020, 12:06 pm | On Twitter

15. The new regional data have just arrived. There are now SEVEN regions of Spain with more than 1,000 Coronavirus cases. - Madrid: 7,165 - Catalonia: 3,270 - Basque Country: 1,465 - Andalusia: 1,287 - Castilla y Leon: 1,1.47 - Valencia: 1,105 - Castilla la Mancha: 1,044
Published: Mar 20, 2020, 12:11 pm | On Twitter

17. Spanish traffic authorities and the Civil Guard have put up 30,000 police roadblocks to stop Spaniards from leaving for the weekend to their second homes.
Published: Mar 20, 2020, 12:21 pm | On Twitter

18. Asked about Spain's national Coronavirus Excel worksheet, Fernando Simón replies "we are doing it".
Published: Mar 20, 2020, 12:24 pm | On Twitter

19. First Minister of Madrid, Ayuso, announces they are putting up Coronavirus beds at the IFEMA exhibition centre and creating more medicalised hotels in the Spanish capital, "Keep asking for medical supplies".
Published: Mar 20, 2020, 12:59 pm | On Twitter

20. Castilla la Mancha not sticking to the government's new national information plan and updates to 1,423 cases of Coronavirus, with 84 deaths.
Published: Mar 20, 2020, 1:15 pm | On Twitter

21. The figure just announced by Castilla la Mancha is about 400 more cases and twice as many deaths as the Health Ministry had announced an hour earlier.
Published: Mar 20, 2020, 1:19 pm | On Twitter

22. BREAK: Spain's Military Emergencies Unit (UME) and the regional government in Madrid to turn the IFEMA exhibition centre into a 5,550-bed hospital with intensive care for Coronavirus patients, "to respond to the demand for care that we anticipate for the next few days".
Published: Mar 20, 2020, 1:23 pm | On Twitter

23. Spain Health Minister, Illa: "I insist, difficult days are coming".
Published: Mar 20, 2020, 1:42 pm | On Twitter

24. Looking a little at the new British documents, they estimate that the doubling time for cases in Wuhan was 4-6 days. In Spain, the graph seems to be going at 2-3 days. https://bit.ly/2J4okxy
Published: Mar 20, 2020, 1:47 pm | On Twitter

25. The British government assumes children are probably major transmitters of Coronavirus, although it does not affect them much. Closing schools delays the peak of the curve but does not reduce the ultimate size of the epidemic.
Published: Mar 20, 2020, 1:50 pm | On Twitter

26. BREAK: The British government assumes that the peak on the Coronavirus curve is likely to occur within 3-5 MONTHS after the onset of widespread community transmission.
Published: Mar 20, 2020, 1:53 pm | On Twitter

27. They have a range for the case fatality rate (people with diagnosed symptoms) of 0.25 -4%.
Published: Mar 20, 2020, 1:56 pm | On Twitter

28. In another document, on social distancing measures: if they were being put in place and lifted, for different periods, people would need to be at home for SIX MONTHS a year. Period between start and impact on intensive care estimated at 2-3 WEEKS. https://bit.ly/2UlvRgM
Published: Mar 20, 2020, 2:08 pm | On Twitter

29. In the Coronavirus and public order document, the British government believes the greatest risk is perceptions of inefficiency in the government's strategy against the virus, and the police trying to overcontrol the situation instead of dialogue. https://bit.ly/2U5jTsD
Published: Mar 20, 2020, 2:13 pm | On Twitter

30. A new article in The Lancet yesterday estimates 72% of cases in the Coronavirus outbreak in Italy as of February 29 had not been detected, compared to the official figure. https://bit.ly/2wfpuDV
Published: Mar 20, 2020, 2:25 pm | On Twitter

31. BREAK Italy: 600 dead and 6,000 new cases in one day. - Cases: 47,021, +5,986 - UCI: 2,655, +157 - Dead: 4,032, +627 - Crude fatality rate: 8.6 % - ICU rate: 7.0%
Published: Mar 20, 2020, 6:24 pm | On Twitter

32. Murcia reports the region's first Coronavirus death. A 70-year-old man at the Virgen del Castillo Hospital in Yecla.
Published: Mar 20, 2020, 8:52 pm | On Twitter

33. Murcia moves up to 240 Coronavirus cases, with 14 in intensive care and the first deceased.
Published: Mar 20, 2020, 9:10 pm | On Twitter

34. Financial Times updates its chart with the now more than 1,000 dead here. Spain has by far the steepest Coronavirus death curve of all. Steeper than Wuhan, steeper than Italy.
Published: Mar 20, 2020, 9:18 pm | On Twitter

35. Civil Protection in Catalonia announces that from Monday residents in that Spanish region will need to justify themselves with a self-signed pass to move around. The Deputy Director of Operations for the National Police said the other day that would not be necessary.
Published: Mar 20, 2020, 9:36 pm | On Twitter

36. The model for the proposed pass in Catalonia asks for the reason for the journey and the addresses between which the journey is taking place. Will the PM's office allow this after the response from the Deputy Director of Operations for the National Police the other day?
Published: Mar 20, 2020, 9:39 pm | On Twitter

37. Financial Times: today's 627 Coronavirus dead in Italy "far" exceed the worst day in China. Spain has a steeper death curve than Italy.
Published: Mar 20, 2020, 9:43 pm | On Twitter

38. BREAK: Catalonia jumps by 933 cases of Coronavirus in one day, to a new total of 4,203. There are 122 dead. 600 infected healthcare workers. The Igualada outbreak is at 209 cases.
Published: Mar 20, 2020, 9:51 pm | On Twitter

39. I asked the Health Ministry today if we're going to get Coronavirus data for cities in Spain. Not, apparently, at the national level. They sent us to the regional health ministries:
Published: Mar 20, 2020, 10:00 pm | On Twitter

40. In Catalonia, there have already been 152,000 temporary lay offs because of Coronavirus, from 8,640 applications, "almost 120,000 more in just one day", Europa Press reports. https://bit.ly/2xc089V
Published: Mar 20, 2020, 10:06 pm | On Twitter

41. Canary Islands announce they are up from 287 to 348 cases of Coronavirus, with five deaths in total.
Published: Mar 20, 2020, 10:33 pm | On Twitter

42. Coronavirus Spain: 21,570 Madrid 7,165 Catalonia 4,203 Basque C. 1,465 CLM 1,423 Andalusia 1,287 CYL 1,147 Valencia 1,105 Navarra 593 Galicia 578 La Rioja 497 Asturias 486 Aragón 360 Canaries 348 Extremadura 297 Murcia 240 Balearics 203 Cantabria 144 Melilla 24 Ceuta 5
Published: Mar 20, 2020, 11:05 pm | On Twitter

43. The logarithmic version:
Published: Mar 20, 2020, 11:07 pm | On Twitter

44. And again we have a record number of Coronavirus cases reported in one day in Spain: 3,493.
Published: Mar 20, 2020, 11:09 pm | On Twitter

45. Feminist marches, political rallies, football matches, trips to Milan, etc, etc. since January. Until about seven days ago, Spain had not prepared or banned anything. 21,570 Coronavirus cases and 1,093 dead already. Tough days coming. Thank you for reading. More tomorrow.
Published: Mar 20, 2020, 11:57 pm | On Twitter

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