Cross-checking data: Carlos III and Health Ministry

1. We can compare the data from the Carlos III Excel sheet with the data the Health Ministry publishes every day in its pdf. Do they look more like the difference between the total cases or the number of cases “diagnosed the previous day” that Fernando Simón likes to highlight?

2. If we put the data from the Carlos III—up to July 11 or 12 in the last file—we see that both the cases and the curve are much more similar, even very close, to the variation in the total data figure from the Health Ministry, not the progression of the previous day numbers.

3. If we compare the evolution of the total Health Ministry number with the Carlos III data, we see they are almost the same but that the evolution of the Carlos III cases is even greater. Not even the total Health Ministry number includes everything the Carlos III picks up.

4. Here are the possible variations of “14 days”. The cases with symptoms that started in the last 14 days number and the 14 x “previous day” number are far from the variation in the total Health Ministry figure or the variation in the Carlos III count.

5. Spanish Health Minister Salvador Illa during interview with Onda Cero this morning: “There is a deep concern about the clusters”. https://bit.ly/2OuRjgO

6. Why is the government minimising the coronavirus numbers or narrative again? What should they be doing right now? What lessons should they have learned from the last five months?

7. Catalan Government announces a coronavirus transmission "alert" in Barcelona, Hospitalet, Cornellá, Badalona and other nearby towns, “we must act with determination so as not to find ourselves in a situation like March”.

8. BREAK: Catalan government asks residents of Barcelona to stay at home because of the coronavirus transmission alert.

9. The regional Catalan health minister, Alba Vergés, has spoken of “a lot of transmission at a high speed”. The re-lockdown of Barcelona begins.

10. “It will take months, months, to manage this situation,” says Catalan regional health minister, Alba Vergés.

11. Catalan Government wants to apply the new measures to half of Catalonia. The list of towns is very long: Barcelona, Vildecans, Cornellà, Badalona, several Llobregats, Vilanova, Alfarràs, Alguare, Sunyer, St. Just Devern, etc etc, etc.

12. If the Catalan government urgently wants to lock half Catalonia down again because of a very rapid transmission of the coronavirus in its territory, including Spain's second largest city, what should Illa and Fernando Simón come out to say about the rest of the country today?

13. What will the courts say about this new attempt to restrict the movement and rights of so many citizens in Catalonia? This very long list is no longer three areas of Hospitalet or four villages in Lérida.

14. Murcia orders four bars closed in a leisure area (Atalayas) of the regional capital where there have already been 9 new infections related to the Bolivian cluster. Concern about the events of 4-11 July. Govt says get a PCR test if you visited Atalayas in that period.

15. Murcia also orders a 50% reduction of capacity for all nightclubs in the municipal area.

16. Murcia's “people currently affected” number rising gradually after the end of the state of alarm.

17. BREAK: Catalonia reports more than 1,000 cases again. 1,111 since yesterday.

18. BREAK: Spain Health Ministry announces 1,400 new coronavirus cases nationwide. There have been 9,234 total cases in the last 14 days.

19. Increase in cases with the onset of symptoms in the last 14 days seems pretty exponential.

20. Given the Health Ministry wanted to stop publishing new data on weekends, let's take advantage of the opportunity to visualize the evolution of coronavirus cases in Spain between last week and this week. Impressive.

21. The progression of the daily changes in the main numbers in the Health Ministry pdf. A bad week. There's nothing to indicate new cases will not continue to rise next week. If we don't do anything, we know what will happen. What should the government now announce?

22. TVE reports that after the regional government asked residents of Barcelona to stay at home today, 360,000 vehicles have left the broader Barcelona metrpolitan area towards the coast. https://twitter.com/telediario_tve/status/1284204236570537988/video/1

23. Notwithstanding the difference with the tests—the system now, in theory, detects the cases earlier—during the March rise, we reached 6,000 cases over the previous seven days on March 14, the day that the coronavirus alarm was declared across Spain.