Thread: Cases accounted for by the Carlos III microbiology institute are up to seven times the daily figure announced by the Health Ministry.
1. Murcia has announced that it will order the closure of indoor activity in bars and night clubs in the region. They will only be able serve their customers on outdoor terraces or become cafes with some indoor service but a midnight closing time.
2. Active coronavirus cases in the region have risen to 158, almost the same level as at the end of May. The lowest level, 41 active cases, came three days after the end of the alarm state in Spain, and has since risen again. The Bolivian cluster is the biggest regional problem.
3. Murcia also orders restrictions on the size of “meetings of all kinds” to 15 people, closes day centres in two towns (Totana and Cieza) and restricts family visits to nursing homes in Murcia city, Totana and Cieza.
4. Although the text of the press release is clear, 15 people in “meetings of all kinds”, am told by regional government that this does NOT include organised weddings and communions with health security measures. They mean family gatherings, at home, informal.
TEST 5. Here is an example of the labels that have been discovered in some Murcia night clubs this weekend, "to be able to stay open, thanks", to force customers to cover the cameras of their mobile phones if they wanted to go inside.
6. A reader asks: “Matthew are you sure this includes bars? Or is it just pubs and nightclubs?”
Regional Government reply: "Pubs and nightclubs. What we call 'drinks bars'. The tapas bars remain as they were".
7. Murcia clarifies its new 15-person group announcement: “it refers exclusively to social, family or group gatherings on terraces”. Communication failure there, compared to the initial restriction on “meetings of all kinds”.
9. BREAK: Catalonia exceeds 10,000 coronavirus cases accumulated over last 14 days, despite a clear weekend effect. Sunday's number just arrived: 755 new cases. Every weekend since the end of the state of alarm in Spain has seen an increase versus the previous weekend.
11. Aragón (next to Catalonia) is doing worse than in March. They have notified 1,084 cases in the past four days. Regional government graph. https://www.aragon.es/coronavirus/situacion-actual/evolucion-diaria
14. Watch what the Carlos III has just done with its Covid data. In an update to their Excel, they have included 844 more cases between May 25 and July 12. The Carlos III curve was already steeper than the total published by the Spanish Health Ministry: now it is even more so.
15. Where did the 844 “new” cases come from? I don't know. But most of them (767) have been put in July and most of them (694) in the second week of July, from 6th to 12th, and increase as we get closer to now. Conclusion, again: there are more cases than Health Ministry admits.
17. The previous day figure the Health Minsitry likes so much (yellow) in the press conferences, the daily difference in the total Health Ministry figure (red) and the figure the Carlos III ends up accounting for as the days go by (blue).
18. The total case figure that the Carlos III ends up accounting for on any given day can be up to 7 times the “previous day” number announced by the Spanish Health Ministry at the press conferences and which ends up in the headlines that day.
24. They have just published today's pdf. Nearly 13,000 cases of coronavirus in the last 14 days in Spain. That is almost double the number of cases on May 25, when the Health Ministry began publishing these new tables.
28. The number of cases with symptoms starting in the last 14-day symptoms that the Health Ministry began to publish in its new tables has QUADRUPLED since May 25 and has multiplied by 6.5 since just before the end of the state of alarm in Spain.
29. At the beginning of this second coronavirus wave in Spain, with a more sensitive detection system (more tests for more people earlier), what should the government do to take advantage of the warning, the alert, that system is giving us? Leave it all to the regions?
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