Covid Notes February 24, 2021

On January 12, the epidemiologist spokesman in Murcia told me that talking about future deaths based on regional government data was “frivolous”. Six weeks later, here is that forecast curve with the actual data. Since the day I asked the question, 648 more people have died.

The pressure on ICUs in Murcia compared to their original total capacity (120 beds) remains very high. Although it has roughly halved (77%) from where it was at the peak earlier this month (146%), it is still up at around the November peak level (90%).

Here's Spain's Vaccine League. Compared to a month ago, all regions have improved. Asturias leading still with Castilla y León. Balearic Islands, Melilla and The Basque Country at the back. At this rate, Spain will take 4.7 years to vaccinate 100%. This year, 18% of population.

If you look at the global comparisons, Spain and all of her regions are far behind the best countries in the world in Covid vaccination. Spain is at 6.92 doses per 100 people. Asturias at 10.21. Balearic Islands at 4.62. Israel: 88.77. USA: 27.34.

And how do we explain such a difference between the doses delivered to each Spanish region? Per 100,000 people, Asturias has received 13,325 doses, while The Balearic Islands is only at 6,796. Double, or half, depending on how you look at it.

According to Our World in Data a couple of days ago, Spain is doing slightly better than the European average, Germany, Italy, France and Portugal but worse than Greece, Denmark and Morocco.

This graph illustrates the progress of Spanish regions with vaccination rate and years. At first, ignoring first absurd couple of days, spread was 23.9 years (Madrid) to 4.7 years (Asturias), and now the difference is between 7.1 years (Balearic Islands) and 3.2 years (Asturias).

More people have now died from Covid in Murcia in February (353) than in January (347), according to the daily figures from the regional government. There are still four updates left this month. The two worst months of the pandemic have been after the Xmas and New Year holidays.

Comment on The Lancet that suggests that glasses and face screens could also be very important in protecting against Covid infections. Cites a study in India where there was a reduction in contagion to zero after starting to use the face screens. Link